Thursday, May 21, 2015

The Ones You Can't Warn


Were not meant to survive.



Darwin's law. 

Something that fucking oblivious to its own survival is not fit to propagate.

The Idiocracy is EOL.

My Country Was Gone

Judgement has been rendered upon the new Sodom and Gomorrah and its Third World child sweatshops. This shall end the most vicious way possible.

Land of Opportunism
When the U.S. supplanted Christian values with diametrically Anti-Christian values, collapse became inevitable. However, no country will be spared what comes next.


The handiwork wrought by six years of Extend and Pretend is ready to be "revealed". While it may seem that absolutely nothing has changed for six years, under the surface everything changed. Just as our food supply was unceremoniously swapped out for Frankenfood without any notification.

This post-2008 Shock Doctrine era was the last stage of selling off the corporate pseudo-economy for consumption debt flows. The chasmic East/West trade deficit papered over by its own returning capital surplus - Bernankenstein's Faustian "savings glut", thrown off by child sweatshops, "forcing" him to lower interest rates to 0% and automate the remaining U.S. jobs. Most horrifying of all, the Middle Class have been systematically carved out by the exact same people they bailed out in 2008 - Extend and Pretend, representing nothing more than a delayed elevator ride into the abyss. A fate chosen for us by a thoroughly corrupt oligarchy and their political sock puppets.

Never forget the price of Freedom Incorporated: $Everything:



Never forget that while troops were overseas post-9/11, Wall Street & Co. used Shock Doctrine and fake patriotism to liquidate the economy, with Faux News playing in the background. It doesn't get more cynical than this.
"Between 2000 and 2012, 17 factories per day were closed"
Corporate profits baselined to GDP:



Employment Versus Profits: Employment today is still well below the worst part of the prior recession:




Manufacturing Jobs w/Wages (%GDP)




Foodstamps versus Corporate Profits




Median net worth:



How to profit from selling off the middle class at 0% for six years:
Bernankenstein's new Wall Street employer:
"The Fed’s policies are doing two things that I am very gravely concerned about. Number one is we have all learned over the years that if you reduce the cost of capital you increase your use of fixed assets and you take out jobs. Corporate America seeing an ever increasing cost for its employee base and extraordinary low interest rates is taking every step they can possibly take to reduce employment, to build factories abroad and domestically to substitute technology and automated processes for people. So one of the very sad negative characteristics of the Fed’s policies is it’s leading to job destruction.”


In other words, the economic collapse is de facto, the last stage financial collapse will bring the revelation that Globalization is a consumption-oriented liability without a corresponding asset. It's inherently insolvent. Casino speculators will all realize at the exact same time that their chips are worthless and there's no one left to buy. The moment when the Dow heads for zero, because forward revenues are predicated upon continuing "demand" aka. a Middle Class, that no longer exists. 

Those who have a month of liquid savings (including retirement funds), per the deflation guide, are twice as well off as the average family. Those who have six months, are an order of magnitude better off. The hiker doesn't have to outrun the bear, (s)he has to outrun the other hikers. Conservation and self-reliance being critical to long-term survival.

http://www.bis.org/statistics/ar2014stats.htm



What the Oligarchs and their bukkake whores fear the most:
An end to their bilateral exploitation scheme aka. the fundamentally insolvent corporate middle-man pseudo-economy:


It took six years of grave digging masquerading as "recovery" to bring about the final transformation of the corporate pseudo-economy into an insolvent casino, where Etrader Boy-Men trade worthless pieces of paper back and forth in a zero sum game. A market at all time highs, sans economy. There can be no more brutal way for this to all end. 

The Dow's Broadening Top w/Fed Balance Sheet: A liquidity-driven illusion wholly decoupled from the economy



By the time the lamestream realizes what they did, it will be game fucking over. Buried beneath their own temple of greed. We can't save them from themselves.

Biblical.


"Game Over, Man"

Pandora's Box of Third World deflation is flooding the developed world

ZH/BBG:



Global Dow:



Who wants cheap junk at Walmart? 


Tools And Their Money. Are Soon Parted

As usual in the Idiocracy, the truth is the EXACT OPPOSITE of what is widely believed:

1929:
"Stock prices have reached a permanently high plateau"
- Irving Fisher (Noted Economist)

Now:
"Stocks are fairly priced relative to corporate profits. Nowhere near as overvalued as Y2K"
U.S. stocks (black) with profits (blue) and GDP (red)



Yes, that fucking dumb. No, I'm not kidding. 

The only time stocks have been this overvalued, is never. No comparison.

Whatever it takes to end this shit show.

The Robo-Market Short Squeeze Continues

Sucking in as much Etrader capital as possible prior to the collapse

New 52 week highs with S&P at all time high:



Call Batman. Gotham Is Running Out of Time.

Having been held to zero accountability for subprime in 2007, "entrepreneurial" banks have branched out into all manner of criminal enterprise:

BBG, Via ZH: 


Organized crime now lightly "taxed" by government. Corrupt society tunes in The Kardashians:

"Investors yawned at the news Wednesday that five of the world’s biggest banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., agreed to plead guilty in a currency-rigging probe. They’re among six banks that will pay $5.8 billion in fines."

“This is the first time you had Citigroup, JPMorgan or any U.S. bank plead guilty essentially to criminal conduct"

"By granting waivers allowing lenders to keep operating even after a felony plea, the government has managed to punish firms while protecting them from fatal consequences."

And there are still tools who wonder why the riots in Baltimore took place among people whose lives have been systematically degraded to Third World standards, by obscenely wealthy government-sanctioned organized criminals.

DHL Risk: Overnight Delivery

In 2012, the Republican election theme was: 47% of Americans are slackers. Today the Republican theme is how do we keep them from going full Baltimore all at the same time? Democrats will campaign under their highly successful theme of pretending to give a shit.


"The report points to globalization, technological change and regulatory reforms as major factors behind the widening wealth gap...Tax cuts for high earners have also helped concentrate wealth, the report said."
[Offset by cheap junk at Walmart for jobless debt slaves]

Extremely ironically, the so-called "wealthiest" countries (Australia, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, U.S.) all have far more household debt than Greece

Debt is the new "wealth", secured by Ponzi mortgages having the shelf life of a rotten banana:




"Big businesses and small are crossing more borders, bringing opportunity, prosperity and optimism into the lives of hundreds of millions of people across the developing world." [The remaining 7 billion are totally fucked]

"...At the pace of a glacier, and at the price of the planet. But as long as someone else's kids are born factory slaves, the system is working fine"

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

The Stock Market Ponzi Scheme. Occupy Deep Karma.



At its most fundamental level, a Ponzi Scheme merely represents an unsustainable rate of extrapolated "growth", papered over by inbound capital. Insiders cash out using late investor inflow. Today's stock market multiple discounts profit growth at above trend rates in perpetuity:



Only the greediest society in human history would assume that a one-time self-cannibalizing "special dividend" represents sustainable growth, when it represents the exact opposite: an extremely abrupt and unforeseen cessation of income. Still, they throw their life savings into this disaster, which flow straight through to offshore bank accounts via stock buybacks. A fitting end for a corrupt society: Self-obliteration.

What comes next will largely decimate the multinational corporations, levelling the playing field for local businesses, and paving the way for a real economy. In every country.

Karma.

In A Real Economy, Wages Are Revenue

You know Globalization is Fucked Company when even Walmart can't make money


Boy-men will say it's because they raised wages (a miniscule amount). Keep thinking that boys. You'll be buried a mile deep under that rubble.


A Casino or An Economy. The Choice Has Been Made

The economy is totally fucked, but revenueless IPOs are soaring (and crashing)

Transports as ratio of S&P


Jobless consumers can no longer afford the cheap junk at Walmart


Vegas can't compete with Wall Street:



Chinese Internet Stocks:




An Etrader's paradise


Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Failed IPOs And A Blow-off Top In Junk

What could go wrong?

The most overvalued stock in the S&P 500 had a big day today
(Ok, it's probably not THE most overvalued stock)


Which made me want to see what was *new* in the world of pump and dump...

Four out of five of last week's IPOs failed: 
IPOScoop: May 19, 2015
"One was priced ABOVE its filing range and started trading 18.5 percent ABOVE its initial public offering price. 
Four were priced BELOW their filing ranges and started trading 4.28 percent BELOW the IPO prices."...

Revelation Awaits The Age of Atrophy




U.S. Housing Starts going back to the 1950s, in thousands


U.S. housing starts divided by U.S. population:
Today's six-year-old "recovery" is below the lowest level from every other recession !!!


The real story: 
Housing starts up 2.8% since 2013 i.e. housing starts tanked this past January, making April's catch-up "surge" seem huge:



Millions of homeowners are still underwater from 2007
U.S. Home Price Index since Y2K:


Bonus Chart: 
DEFLATION: #WINNING!
Those Third World imports just keep surging in:
Forward U.S. Deflation Expectations via RINF ETF:


It's only about spinning the bullshit for the old age home

Monday, May 18, 2015

Revelation Awaits The Age of Atrophy

Prechter & Company consider this entire six year rally to be an ending diagonal. Essentially history's largest headfake.
- An "ending diagonal" is a rising wedge, on ever-dwindling volume and ever-deteriorating fundamentals aka. revenue and profit growth. Ascribing this deadliest of all wave forms, predicts how it will end, but clearly not when. The longer it draws out, the more spectacular the conclusion - lending ever more time for fundamentals to diverge from prices. Many financial purists don't believe in technical analysis (price graphs), relying instead upon "scientific" guesses as to what profits and the economy will look like a year from now - assuming all variables remain constant, except conveniently extrapolated growth.

And some passersby would argue that it's highly disengenuous to keep saying the same thing over and over again, while nothing changes. I agree, tell them to stop. 

Nothing is more insidious than atrophy. Anyone who thinks that "nothing is changing" is in for a big fucking surprise.

S&P with internals:



"Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences"


The Last Season of Mad Men Is Ending. Predictably.

Having run out of ways to continually grow profits, they gutted the country and sold it to the highest bidder. No one lifted a finger to stop it. The End.


CNBC: May 17, 2015
"As CEOs buy a record amount of stock with shareholder money, they are keeping their wallets in their pockets when it comes to purchasing shares with their own cash. Insider buying virtually dried up in April, sending the insider sell/buy ratio to its highest level in more than two years. It's a troubling contrast that may speak to the true feelings executives have about the staying power of this six-year bull market."

Read as: Insiders are selling at a 40:1 ratio (below)

MW: Mar. 6, 2015
Tech Insider Selling Highest in 8 Years
Net Insider Buying (Top) with Stock buybacks (Bottom):




Barron's Insider Transactions: Sales / Buys, currently 27:1, 40:1 in April:




Corporate Profits: Endgame


They don't ring a bell at the top, they just sell with both hands to the Idolatrous sheeple i.e. the self-condemned bagholders who never EVER learn, and who couldn't tell a sociopathic liar if they were bitch slapped in the face with one.

The Idiocratic Oath: "No One Can Predict the Inevitable"

Membership has its privileges

Subconsciously, the disposable society knows they're being lied to, but they don't care. Without the lie, there can be no shopping sprees, no cross-country soccer tournaments, no iGadgets, no unreality TV escapism. No external gratification as a proxy for "happiness".

Consumer Sentiment (red line) with forward reflation expectations (via 1 Year Treasuries)




"No one warned me this was all fake"

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Congestive Market Failure Visualized

ZH: May 15, 2015
"The ADX, or Average Directional Index...is essentially an indicator of the strength (or lack of strength) of the prevailing trend over a specified period, regardless of the trend’s direction. A high number indicates a strongly trending market and a low number reflects a lack of trend. The traditional default look-back period is 14 days so we tend to stick with that. Interestingly, recent readings of the 14-day ADX applied to the S&P 500 have been among the lowest of the last 65 years, indicating an extremely “trendless” market."

5 week ADX with Nasdaq:


Saturday, May 16, 2015

It Didn't Have To Be This Way


Somewhere along the way, people lost track of what's important.

Sold out.

Corporations took over. Bought up the system.

The infinite growth model went into overdrive

Human beings were commodified

Life was commodified

The infinite growth model declared war on nature, the last constraint on profit

Reality will now be the final arbiter, rendering judgement on the hairless monkeys

It didn't have to be this way.

But it surely is.


This Can End Now: The Last Tool Has Been Located

According to the "greater tool" theory, inherently worthless assets continue to rise only as long as the next greater tool with money can be found... 

"Change of Plans"
Rydex Bullish/Bearish Asset Allocation:


Nasdaq up volume / total volume



Equity Put/Call Inverted (aka. Call / Put) w/Nasdaq



As it was in 2007, the "buy and hold" sheeple are the stock buyback bagholders of last resort

The Fed's Potemkin Village Has No Exit

It's only a matter of time before Wall Street beseeches its Fed bukkake whores to print more money now that the recovery has been postponed until never.

Monetary Policy, at best, is a counter-cyclical tool to support business liquidity during recessions. It's not meant to facilitate 35 years of trade deficits by subsidizing ever-greater debt accumulation.

0% GDP @Max stimulus:
Fed balance sheet (red) w/Fed Funds Rate (interest rates)


Unfortunately, however, corporate profits are a function of (liquidating) the economy, not of Fed-sponsored stock buybacks, hence this entire illusion is coming to a very abrupt ending:
Corporate Profits (Year-over-Year Change)


Stocks versus Treasury yields
I expect MUCH lower Treasury yields into the collapse, not withstanding this headfake bounce similar to 2008:



The Branded Idiocracy Is EOL. Tagged For Disposal.

A corporate chattel society has no value(s). It's an extended high school competition, with no clue:

What's real, what's fake. 

What's lie, what's truth.

What is living, what is dying.

What is permanent, what is disposable.

What is life.

What is end of life.

Nature is merciful in this way.



Record Stock Buybacks: Cashing Out With Economy Crashing

ZH: March 12, 2015
Consensus: 3%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model: .6%


Consensus: 3%
Atlanta Fed: .7%
Actual: TBD (Won't be known until July)


"The world of economists was shaken recently as the Atlanta Federal Reserve moved its forecast for this year to zero GDP growth."

0% interest rates and 0% GDP growth: The first non-recovery in U.S. history

Puts this into perspective:
May 14, 2015:
Kansas City Southern (Railway) Gives Disastrous Economic Update. Pulls Guidance. Announces Buyback.