Sunday, April 19, 2015

Trouble In Alibabylon

Ameritrade and Schwab outperforming. Then and now.

It was a busy week in Pump and Dump...

Ponzi Desperation: Running From Madoff

Chinese thought dealers shit their pants over the weekend contemplating the fundamental question: What happens to collapsing GDP when stocks crash?

ZH: April 19, 2015
After regulators tightened margin requirements and eased short selling rules, Chinese stock futures collapsed 7% on Friday, off-hours for China.

Now, in a panic 180 degree turnaround, the People's Bank of China just increased bank liquidity by $200 billion.

"In other words, the Chinese market may be "red hot", but please don't stop making it even redder. Because as long as China is unable to halt its housing hard-landing, it will gladly take an equity bubble in lieu of a housing bubble if that helps preserve the people's wealth (the problem being that in China only 25% of household assets are in financial products - 75% is in real estate). Which is why any attempts to offset the bursting housing bubble with a stock bubble in China will fail."

Can Central Banksters actively prevent meltdown in real-time, by propelling stocks to higher levels from which they can crash? It seems like a dubious idea for more than a few hours, but we'll soon find out...

The Big Lie. Hook, Line and Sinker.

Bernankenstein & Co. successfully circumvented reality

Washington Post: April 19, 2015

"If anyone deserves a seven-figure sinecure, it's Ben Bernanke. The former Fed Chair put his academic work on the Great Depression to the best possible use when he saved the financial system in 2008, and then went further than any other central banker to try to bring unemployment down."

Employment/Unemployment, what's the difference to Dumbfuckistan?
Even Bernankenstein's new employer says that he only made unemployment far worse. 
Early retirement for 20 year-olds has never been so popular:

Today's apologists for the status quo forget that in the Great Depression, the debt was eliminated. Whereas, in this era it has grown by 50% globally in six years. So Bernankenstein & Co. didn't save Washington Post morons from Depression, he guaranteed they would be obliterated, and not see it coming.

The Big Lie is de facto.

Nothing Left to Bail Out

"For six years straight, the corporate Mad Men, sponsored by Central Bank bukkake whores, have been dismantling the global economy and selling it for special dividends. "

The 15 Year Widely Embraced Lie:
Monetary policy "helping the economy" 
Interest rates and jobs:

ZH: April 18, 2015: 
Citadel Investment Group
Bernankenstein's new Wall Street employer saying the same thing, two years ago:
"The Fed’s policies are doing two things that I am very gravely concerned about. Number one is we have all learned over the years that if you reduce the cost of capital you increase your use of fixed assets and you take out jobs. Corporate America seeing an ever increasing cost for its employee base and extraordinary low interest rates is taking every step they can possibly take to reduce employment, to build factories abroad and domestically to substitute technology and automated processes for people. So one of the very sad negative characteristics of the Fed’s policies is it’s leading to job destruction.”

Fast forward two years:
ZH: April 16, 2015
Citadel Investment Group
Wall Street's bukkake whore joins the most highly leveraged HFT firm on Wall Street

Bernankenstein and Skynet. At one with the machine. A corrupt society can't recognize corruption.

The Fed didn't circumvent reality, they sponsored a six year corporate job annihilating debt binge, leaving nothing left to bail out at the end of it. But don't take my word for it, ask Bernankenstein's new/old boss. 

Pandora's Deluge: Third World Deflation

The Fed didn't create first order deflation, as many desperately would have us believe. They certainly financed it, and they facilitated it, but they didn't create it in the first instance. Low interest rates didn't cause outsourcing, outsourcing caused low interest rates. Which subsidized further labour substitution.

Job killing 0% interest rates are compliments of Third World factory slaves:
Net exports and interest rates

First order deflation came from buying cheap junk in one country and selling it in another, brokering the difference with debt. One-way industrial arbitrage, with Third World convergence waiting at the end of it all. 

Until that ends, there will be no real jobs. The Titanic has a gaping hole in its side and no amount of Fiscal/Monetary bailing will fix it.

But we are surrounded by dunces, so they get to find out the hard way. There is no free lunch in Walmart world.

The Big Lie With The Big Humpty Dumpty Ending

After Lehman, the Idiocracy sold its soul for a few more years. Now the bill is due and the cost is $Everything.

"The stock market is rallying so that means the economy is fantastic".
The exact same dumbfuck bullshit was trotted out in 2000 and 2007: Never mind that it was a total lie then, and a far bigger lie now. We're dealing with a society that wouldn't know the truth if it was shoved up their ass with a red hot poker.

The Big Lie Visualized
A Third Wave DOWN at all degrees of trend - Holy grail of accelerated collapse. 

Global Dow: 

Anyone who can fog a mirror, implicitly knows this is all ending. 2008 was the "Big Short", as Wall Street bet all in against the Middle Class but then had to get bailed out when history's most corrupt dunces realized belatedly that they were counter-party to their own amoral bets.

This era will be the "Big Lie" - When the sheeple cry in unison: "No one told me we can't borrow our way out of a debt crisis !!!"

Cognitive Dissonance: "The feeling of uncomfortable tension which comes from holding two conflicting thoughts in the mind at the same time."

I never discuss "reality" anymore, since most people don't appreciate changing their underwear in the middle of the day. Nevertheless, none will argue the point. Even the densest buffoon knows this is all ending. They just can't watch it happen. After all, there's not much left of sanity once the Big Lie has been swallowed whole.

Earth to McConaughey: Find That New Planet ASAP.

Because we're not going to lift a finger to save the gift we were already given.

Denialist: Someone who really doesn't give a fuck about the future or anyone else for that matter.

There's a channel for that:

In this corrupt old age home, reality is the mortal enemy, delay and denialism the only allies. Fortunately, denialism is total ignorance to risk, which is why the Big Lie will monkey hammer the denialists into fucking oblivion. A necessary first step, if our children are to have any future.

Interstellar: a denialist fantasy about a species that fucks up one planet and then spends all of its time looking for another one to destroy. Needless to say the ethical dilemma is wholesale lost on the Idiocracy.

"It just keeps getting hotter. March was the hottest month on record, and the past three months were the warmest start to a year on record (135 years)..."

Saturday, April 18, 2015

All Aboard Now

SHIP OF FOOLS [World Party/Wallinger]

Out of China

Someone always knows something
2008 was a 4th wave blip

Five waves is an impulse. The third wave is the longest. Fifth is last.

Locked and Loaded

A fully automatic M16: $40k at the upper end.

Militia Groups Since the Muslim Anti-Christ was Elected.
Apparently militias only trust Republicans like George Bush. Because everyone knows they are the true country dismantling "patriots".
Marco Rubio (Justin Bieber) having just sold his soul to the Neocons.

"More Kool-Aid, Please"

Israeli stocks
A 20 year accelerating uptrend. I've never seen that before, except Vancouver real estate, machine guns, and college tuitions.

New Zealand stocks with Japanese Yen (inverted)
The money had to go somewhere...

ISIS country: Third wave down can begin any time now...

Occupy Smoking Fucking Crater

The Last Temptation of Wall Street
Investor net leverage (NYSE Margin debt - cash and credit). Also shown here:

The magnitude of this collapse will define cataclysmic. Wall Street will be more smoking crater than location. Six years of 0% bailout rope, so they hanged themselves.

For six fucking years straight, the corporate Mad Men, sponsored by Central Bank bukkake whores, have been dismantling the global economy and selling it for special dividends. Econo-dunces were at a loss why there were no jobs, so political sock puppets reconfigured unemployment to exclude anyone who can't find a job. All while the Soylent Idiocracy euthanized itself on junk food and junk culture.

The foundational structure of the economy has now been totally eliminated. The current illusion-formerly-known-as-the-economy consists of printing and borrowing, abetted with fake confidence, all hanging by a single overnight event.

This time, there will be nothing left to bail out -  30% of listed companies are running losses and the rest are saddled with trillions in "leveraged recapitalizations" aka. equity for debt. 

First they cannibalized local economies, then they cannibalized the middle class, then they cannibalized themselves. All it will take for the corporations to go away, is to do nothing.

Central banksters didn't circumvent reality, reality circumvented them.

Friday, April 17, 2015

The Madoff Moment

The Idiocracy is not defined by hard questions that are not answered, it's defined by hard questions that aren't even asked.

Unasked question of the week:

If China GDP growth is currently at a 25 year low with stock euphoria at a 7 year high. What does that portend for demand when gambling Chinese housewives realize they just lost the life savings? Like the rest of the world, Chinese stocks will be chasing GDP lower.

We are witnessing the Madoff Moment, coalescing in real time.

Nothing Matters Until It Collapses

Rolling dislocations across global markets this week were largely ignored. The first package of overnight risk arrived last night. Free shipping. A mild glimpse into the future, which could begin as soon as Monday.

In other news, bloggers were branded 'deranged' for attempting to explain that the impossible is not possible. But the standard takeaway is that nothing matters until it collapses. 

Chart of the week:
Exhibit A of gamblers mixing and pouring their own Kool-Aid
A blow-off spike in Chinese stocks accompanied by tanking GDP growth (red line):

More widely ignored insanity after the jump...

Unhedged Buffoon Risk. Lethal.

A 35 year investment in psychopaths

What happens when the Idiocracy wakes up to the fact that their "best and brightest" are as dumb as a fucking post. And can't otherwise manage their way out of a paper bag?

Buffoon implosion. Among other things.

The biggest widely embraced lie of this era is that the people in leadership know what the fuck they are doing.

After several decades of lying, extrapolating the impossible, and relying upon asinine assumptions, the accumulated moral, ethical and intellectual deficit is chasmic.

By far the greatest risk we face.

Spending On Hookers Peaked A Year Ago

MW: April 17, 2105:
(Paid) Sex Is In Recession
Spending on drugs, booze, prostitutes and gambling is considered a leading indicator - the first things to be reduced in a flagging economy. Cheap tequila while lying on the linoleum, will always be the last thing to go of course.

Vice Index: 
"When the index drops below 100, Zatlin points out, consumer spending is contracting."

The Casino Indicator: We've never seen this before...

The Idiocracy's Guide to Circumventing Reality

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. (Einstein)

DHL Risk. Overnight delivery
Overnight, nothing happened, which caused the S&P to gap down 20 points at the open. When I say 'nothing, I mean on the one hand, Chinese regulators clamped down on speculation and eased shorting rules. On the other hand, we are told in an article posted yesterday that the Chinese government is behind the stock market rally. In the insane asylum it all makes perfect sense. If you read both articles, the second one first, you learn that speculators were assuming that the Chinese government is supporting the rally, but then along came last night's regulatory crackdown proving it was all just wishful thinking:

Reality need not apply...

Thursday, April 16, 2015

The Lunatics Are Running the Asylum

ZH: April 16, 2015
U.S. Congress:

"Daring to question established lamestream narratives."

We can't save them from themselves. Their derangement is beyond any reason. 

In the meantime, below, two alternate views for why the lies and liars have lasted this long. One arithmetic, the other geometric. Both indicating that this will all end extraordinarily violently. 

When the lamestream lunatics realize that they were the problem all along. And there's not enough Prozac to go around.

History's largest bearish rising wedge:

A third failed retracement bubble, with overthrow

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Bonfire of the Sanities

By the end, even the liars feared the monstrosity of their ever-growing lies. 

Lies swallowed whole by an aging insane asylum. Those questioning the insanity, judged to be the insane.

Pretend and be pretended, patiently awaiting their banquet of consequences. 

And above all, enjoying the silence, resting assured that it was extremely well paid for.

Having nothing left to burn.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

The Kool-Aid Has Been Imbibed With Gusto

They're locked in for what comes next.

We tried.

Way too many megalomaniacs, psychopaths, and buffoons.

The Morbidity of Lies: Voila - Third World Convergence

“You know I hate, detest, and can't bear a lie, not because I am straighter than the rest of us, but simply because it appalls me. There is a taint of death, a flavour of mortality in lies - which is exactly what I hate and detest in the world - what I want to forget.” 
― Joseph Conrad, Heart of Darkness

...the essence of aging - learning to embrace sophisticated self-deceptions that any child could impugn.

The 15 year widely embraced lie:
aka. Monetary Policy doing the exact opposite of what we're told it's doing:
If, as Monetary psychopaths tell us, low interest rates alleviate unemployment, then why has the employment-population ratio been falling for 15 years as interest rates fell from 7% to zero? And no it's not because 25 year olds are retiring early as the government wants us to believe. 

Because it took three bubbles to finish the corporate outsourcing job that started with Reagan. The only thing left to go are the soon-to-be-bankrupt corporations. That comes next.

Third World factory slaves now do everything we used to do, at ten cents on the dollar, while the developed world laid itself off amid soaring debt. 

We're just waiting for the debt bubble to pop and reveal that convergence is de facto.

The unthinkable horror of self-obliteration.

Infinite Growth versus Finite Planet

The stock market demands infinite growth. Which is what made Globalized hyper-expansion and collapse inevitable. There will be tremendous suffering to get things back into sustainable alignment. 

Globalization gave the dim illusion of working, merely by suppressing Third World demand via a one-way trade slavery scheme. Which was financed with asinine amounts of unsecured Ponzi debt.  

The Ponzi financialization of one-way trade is the first derivative risk. 

The collapse of the global environment, the second order risk.

The point of this blog is to point out that hopefully the first derivative collapse forestalls the second. Otherwise, we're fucked company.

And we need not expect Billy Gates and the Denialation Co.  to anticipate or understand any of this, despite it being well advanced. The horror of what has been created here, is beyond their mental capacity to accept.

Which is what makes it biblical.

Saturday, April 11, 2015

Waiting for Madoff @ 50:1 Leverage

DHL Risk: Overnight Delivery
Speculating in currencies is the fastest way to lose everything. DHL fast.
Maximum leverage in stocks is 2:1, in Forex it's 50:1. Yes, you read that right.

All investors are speculating in currencies now, whether they realize it or not. And the premise for being long dollar no longer exists. 

Overnight risk. Visualized:
Going back just a few months, traders betting on a continued Swiss Franc / Euro peg, obliterated themselves and almost took out their own broker (FXCM). Overnight.

Now, the current global melt-up rally is predicated upon a strong dollar, weak Euro/Yen. 

Meaning it's predicated upon a strong U.S. wreckovery, which Goldman just called off due to lack of an economy:

The premise for a dollar rally no longer exists. It was an Econo-dunce fabrication. Which is unfortunate, because correlation is not causation except when it is:

Euro (Inverted) with German DAX

Yen (Inverted) with Nikkei

Risk is binary

Friday, April 10, 2015

YOLO: The Only Way It Would End.

The running of the bulltards...

Social Mood is ebullient. Global stock indices hitting multi-year highs, as gamblers throw their life savings down a black hole. U.S. consumption sentimentality at Housing Bubble highs for absolutely no fucking reason. The love affair with herding psychopaths unconditional.

Locked in their own happy Social Mood bubble, brokered by Facebook and Faux News. 

History's Largest Short-Covering Rally

Will leave nothing behind to bail out

Capitulation Visualized: 
Large scale bets on a crash peaked last October and are now falling:

Option Skew:
"The CBOE SKEW Index ("SKEW") is an index derived from the price of S&P 500 tail risk. Similar to VIX®, the price of S&P 500 tail risk is calculated from the prices of S&P 500 out-of-the-money options"

"I am taking the blue pills now"

The Global Ponzi Scheme Went Into Melt-Up This Week

The world's "best and brightest" Harvard-Sachs psychopaths have set the stage for a global synchronized meltdown. There is no way to possibly describe how violently this will all end.

Shanghai Composite

China is playing catch-up with Germany...

The Needle and The Damage Done

Stocks rallied all week due to last Friday's ridiculously bad jobs report and Goldman's resulting assessment that rates won't rise until the economy floats back from China.

S&P Internals

Fortunately, the end comes mercifully quick when most of the damage has already been done.

Quantitative Euthanasia. Staggering to the Collapse.

The life force is draining
In the old age home, nothing is allowed to change. Dinner can't move to 5pm, it's 4:30pm, or Senate buffoons take up "Green Eggs and Ham" for 24 hours straight.

What is more cynical, widespread adherence to a political regime that can't change anything, or refuting a political regime that can't change anything? If you choose the latter, you're a social deviant, we know that much. 

Just pretend this time will be different...

"He pledged to end "unconstitutional" NSA surveillance of phone records on his first day in office."

Sadly, we know that 61% of Americans enjoy being spied on by the NSA and Big Brother and other assorted psychopaths.

The underlying problem isn't Washington sock puppets, it's that the Idiocracy doesn't object to slow death. They glanced into the abyss in 2008 and saw shopping mall excursions flash before their eyes. 

Only collapse of the decaying status quo will bring opportunity for sustainable change. Most of the structural damage has already taken place. 

Jim Jones For President: Kool-Aid Mom to Fearful Zombies

Informed citizens are the only check on despotism
"Locke is more interested in describing the occasions when the people take power back from the government to which they have entrusted it. If the rule of law is ignored, if the representatives of the people are prevented from assembling, if the mechanisms of election are altered without popular consent, or if the people are handed over to a foreign power, then they can take back their original authority and overthrow the government. 
They can also rebel if the government attempts to take away their rights... "

The Lehman Indicators Signal Market Top

MW: April 10, 2015
"Since 1970, the sectors that on average have performed the best over the three months prior to those tops are Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples and Health Care"
"These are the very sectors that are at the top of the ranking for year-to-date performance, according to FactSet. In contrast, the three sectors that prior to past major tops were the worst performers, on average, are Utilities, Energy and Financials. And, sure enough, they are the three worst year-to-date performers.

Healthcare / Utilities: