Tuesday, April 22, 2014

The Freight Train of Reality Is Coming In For the Kill

There's a light at the end of the "Effortless Wealth" tunnel
Many reading this blog wonder if I'm depressed. My wife wonders the same thing. 

This is all way beyond putting up charts to point out the blatantly obvious to a society desperate to believe the exact opposite. This has devolved into a war of mental attrition in which the overwhelming majority capitulated a long, long time ago...

Sunday, April 20, 2014

American Dream to American Nightmare

The Most Persistently Overvalued Stock Market In U.S. History
Once again, commodity prices are dead-cat bouncing which has produced a bagload of hand wringing over inflation. Let's make this debate as straightforward as possible:

Anyone who believes that the status quo and its attendant ludicrous borrowing is indefinitely sustainable, ad infinitum, is an "inflationist". Anyone who believes that the age of inflated debt, inflated bullshit, and inflated dumbfucks is long overdue to collapse in a way that makes 2008 seem like a fond memory, is a deflationist. 

Central Banks merely gave everyone five more years of cheap money to borrow themselves ALL IN on the American Nightmare...

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Skynet Will Trigger Financial Deathstar 2.0

The only thing that *could* delay inevitable collapse is more Fed liquidity. The only thing that will bring more Fed liquidity, is collapse
A Thermonuclear Megaton-yield hydrogen bomb requires a fission trigger (atom bomb) to generate the surface-of-the-sun temperatures required to initiate fusion reaction. Likewise in these markets, the HFT meltdown will trigger the Deathstar 2.0 implosion sequence...

Friday, April 11, 2014

Rome Has Fallen - Short of Being Sacked...

"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed" (U.S. Second Amendment to the Constitution)

Thursday, April 10, 2014

What Went Wrong?

Ahh yeah...we fucked up again. We thought we had an economy, but it turned out to be a Ponzi Scheme. These things happen. That's what human beings do, we fuck everything up. The creator built a perfect world and then for some unknown reason went and created the human race. The one mistake she made. After that we said, don't worry about screwing anything up again, because we have that all covered. The first order of business was to create religion to blame God for whatever malfeasance we were about to get into. There are tens of thousands of religions and permutations thereof to choose from, but there's only ONE REALITY - you know, the one God created. So choose carefully...

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

All Things Fake Are Now Crumbling

“The real hopeless victims of mental illness are to be found among those who appear to be most normal. Many of them are normal because they are so well adjusted to our mode of existence, because their human voice has been silenced so early in their lives that they do not even struggle or suffer or develop symptoms as the neurotic does. They are normal not in what may be called the absolute sense of the word; they are normal only in relation to a profoundly abnormal society. Their perfect adjustment to that abnormal society is a measure of their mental sickness. These millions of abnormally normal people, living without fuss in a society to which, if they were fully human beings, they ought not to be adjusted.” 
– Aldous Huxley – Brave New World Revisited (h/t: ZH, TheBurningPlatformBlog)

They Don't Wake You Up From a Stoned Coma at the Top

Or Do They?

Not one day goes by when some prognosticator doesn't give some specious reason for buying into the already collapsing status quo. It's unbelievable...

Monday, April 7, 2014

Deflation v.s. Inflation: Signal v.s. Noise

The debate over whether or not the economy is seeing inflation versus deflation is mostly around timeframe. Costs for things like food, energy, healthcare and tuition keep rising, while wages continue to stagnate as wage deflation is relentlessly imported from the Third World.

If the cost of something keeps rising, and the ability to pay for it keeps falling then it will all break in the direction of deflation. But we don't have to conjecture about this, because we've seen this movie before...

Wall Street's Omerta: Greed's Code of Silence

The Flash Boyz
Everyone on Wall Street knows they are being front-run by HFT bots, but no one says anything, undoubtedly because that's the least of the corruption going on - If someone won't call the police when they are being fucked over, it means that they too are a criminal...

Sunday, April 6, 2014

"Dude, where are the jobs?

When Econo-dunces coined this specious term "the consumer", jobs became an endangered species...

Saturday, April 5, 2014

HFT System Test (Everybody Ready?)

Things are getting interesting. Conditions are setting up perfectly to stress test the post-2008 HFT-based "market making" system to see what the "Flash Boyz" can take. The Dow has gone nowhere for three months straight, the Nasdaq is getting monkey hammered, and the S&P is hanging by the mere thread of an ever-dwindling supply of random stocks being pump and dumped by HFT bots to new 52 week highs. All as IPO issuance and insider lockup expirations flood the market with ever-more supply...Suffice to say, these same test conditions have never been replicated in development, so this will be what those of us in the IT world refer to as a production test aka. a "resume updating event". I've heard that the SEC has archived copies of HFT code "in case something goes wrong". That would be like referencing blueprints for a hydrogen bomb at the moment it was detonated. Good luck with that...

The Moronic Assumption: "There's No Subprime Here"

Plausible Deniability Is The Opiate of the Stoned Masses
Zombieland learned nothing from 2008. Less than nothing really. So it's guaranteed to happen again - it would be impossible for it not to happen. Cheap money was at the root cause of the financial crisis, and since that fiasco, money has only gotten progressively cheaper...Globalization's two primary exports are cheap junk and cheap money. Breaking it down in a way that even a zombie can understand - cheap money comes from Third World factory slaves who subsidize our standard of living - both through suppressed wages and reverse capital flows. Taking that cheap money to buy the bigger house and bigger car, under the premise that "it can't happen to me", is the Faustian assumption. Believing that "there's no subprime here" is the moronic assumption. In combination, these assumptions will bury anyone who believes them...

Thursday, April 3, 2014

The Rise and Fall of The Great Powers

No country can remain dominant forever, however, understanding what has led the U.S. to this critical juncture informs future nation states (including the U.S. itself) that aspire to greatness...

Stewing in the Cauldron of the "Obvious"

aka. Pounding Sand Up Our Ass
That miniscule handful of people who would actually want to change the status quo to the benefit of future generations, are constantly stymied by the stagnant inertia of this decayed society. The word "obvious" itself has lost all useful value. In a society that can't handle any form of reality whatsoever, the fact that some risk or dysfunction is "obvious", means literally nothing. The bottom line in all of this is that today's thought dealers and the stoned Idiocracy at large, have not been sufficiently "motivated" to make changes...

Peak Leverage: Way Past Peak Oil

Norway shows us today just to what extent the oil industry, the car addiction, and of course global carbon emissions have been massively subsidized by Globalization. The presumed sustainability of the status quo is pivotal to attracting new investment in a high fixed cost world. Operating leverage and financial leverage have both been massively subsidized by globalization and its attendant flow of cheap money. Like the Dow, energy markets are leveraged for obliteration...

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Welcome to the Hotel California

Getting into an asset bubble is the easy part. For the vast majority, getting out before it implodes is the impossible part...

Poverty's Black Hole

"Poverty is like literally being held back from enjoying life, almost to the point of not being able to breathe."

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

The Faustian Assumption: "It can't happen to me"

"dost thou not reckon us amongst the happy men at all?"
"Our wisdom too, is a cheerful and a homely, not a noble and kingly wisdom. Observing the numerous misfortunes that attend all conditions forbids us to grow insolent upon our present enjoyments"
...
"Yet, to salute as happy one that is still in the midst of life and hazard, we think as little safe and conclusive as to crown and proclaim as victorious the wrestler that is yet in the ring"
- Plutarch's Lives

Monday, March 31, 2014

"Free Markets" or Fair Markets. Choose One.

HFT is Programmed for Disaster
Today was the release of Michael Lewis' new book "Flash Boys" about the rise of High Frequency Trading. To celebrate the occasion, the FBI opened an investigation into this industry, only about several years too late. Everyone has their own spin on this narrative, however, as usual, greed is at the root cause of this entire fiasco. When all of the stock and commodity exchanges themselves were IPO'd in the past decade and became publicly traded companies, then BIG SURPRISE, these exchanges morphed into for-profit casinos and went to work monetizing their customers at all costs. Shocking I know. The Business of Business is Profit...

"Dude, Where's the Economy?"

Frat boys outsourced the economy, now they spend every day looking for it
"Q1 Earnings warnings near record levels...the market actually has reacted positively to the negative preannouncements"
First jobs didn't matter, then economic growth didn't matter, now even profits don't matter anymore. As long as the Fed dopium keeps flowing, and the Dow keeps rising, then literally nothing else matters. The smoke and mirrors and correlated bullshit will continue right up until such time as this entire shit show plows straight into the abyss with extreme dislocation...

Sunday, March 30, 2014

The Business of America is Business

An extraordinarily expensive post-secondary educational system that doesn't educate
An extraordinarily expensive healthcare system that doesn't make people healthy
An obscenely expensive Military Industrial Complex that can't win wars

I'm seeing a pattern here...

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Preparing for the "1929 Can't Happen Again" Crash

Only the Soylent Idiocracy would "believe" that something that's already happening in real time, can't happen. Income inequality was outsourced back to 1929 levels right in front of their fucking eyes and they did nothing about it, so ignoring signs of the resulting market crash should take no more effort than tuning in to ESPN or the Kardashians.

All we're doing now is standing around waiting for the Dow worshippers to realize that they bought into a Ponzi Scheme built upon a hollowed out economy. "The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or a bankrupt idiot after the peak" (a serious dilemma, indeed).

Of course a surprise panic collapse would by no means be possible were it not for a society of self-absorbed zombies who inherently assume that borrowing from Third World factory slaves will continue forever...

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Rearranging Deck Chairs on the Titanic

Everyone wants to point fingers for this ongoing clusterfuck, including me. However, until the human race comes to terms with the fact that there are now 7 billion people on this planet and everyone wants the same "things" at the expense of everyone else, then all economic discussions ignoring that fact are merely pointless parlour games...

Today's "Elites" Are Getting Desperate

Things are spinning out of control for the global elites running this circus. 

These pampered pretenders don't have ANY capacity to face reality or adversity, so like human call options many of them will just expire worthless...

Saturday, March 22, 2014

Soylent Idiocracy

Euthanizing the Masses with Spectacle
Keeping up with the Dow Joneses, the Kardashians, and all things fake has exacted a heavy toll on the Idiocracy. Real adversity hasn't even begun yet for the yuppy-class, but the zombified masses are already burned out on their all-consuming rat race to nowhere.

For all 50 or so of us realists, it's been an excruciating five year horror show, watching the exact same frat boys who fucked things up the last time, "fix" the problem by applying 25x more of their econo-dunce alchemy. We'll never get that time back...

Friday, March 21, 2014

A Stealth Collapse In Broad Daylight

No, they never learn
It took four years, but eventually the degenerate gamblers at large who have the attention span of a coked up flea, finally forgot the pain of 2000 and 2008 and piled back into stocks one more time. Some people just never learn, so once again, they're ALL IN, double or dog food, while Wall Street makes its way out the back door. 

This will be a stealth collapse in broad daylight, since the Idiocracy would never presume that printing money and borrowing to oblivion could end badly...

Thursday, March 20, 2014

The Last Empire: Protecting the Ponzi Scheme

No one trusts the U.S. government. Even Americans don't trust the U.S. government.

The darkest form of evil always comes falsely packaged as something "good"...

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Buy The Fucking Collapse (BTFC)

Everyone thinks that THEY will be the one who gets out ahead of everyone else...


Monday, March 17, 2014

Ponzinomics: The Lessons Learned

Nine out of ten people arrive at my blog by accident, either googling "BTFATH" or searching for Chinese internet stocks. The majority of those people shit their pants and head straight back to the Wall Street Journal.

The other ~five of you searched for "the world economy is a ponzi scheme" and landed here for a reason. I know, I see it in my blog's dashboard. One guy recently googled "fuck this globalized ponzi scheme"...AWESOME.