Friday, August 15, 2014

Bagholder: "A shareholder left holding shares of worthless stocks"

"Soros Management Fund increases bearish put position by 605%" [Aug. 15th, 2014]


Some people just don't want to invest in Ebola...

The Smart Money Has Left the Building
Instances where new highs in the market were not confirmed by new highs in weekly money flow (circled in green): 2007 top, 2010 Flash Crash and now:



The Soros bet visualized
Option Skew 50 DMA (Data from: http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/introduction.aspx)
From Barrons.com:


ETraders are taking their ball home
Whereas the big money was going ALL IN on put options betting on collapse (above), ETraders went ALL IN on call options betting on more upside, but then they changed their minds and went home instead...

CPCE: Equity Put/call inverted 



The Last Rotation
T-Bond yields at the lowest level in a year
Rotation out of stocks into bonds...


Got Ebola?
Money Flow Peaked
Fed QE winding down, providing only 1.3% additional relative upside
Large investors making historically unprecedented bet on collapse
Etraders ALL IN on call options
Margin debt at all time high
Consumer sentiment at the highest level since October 2007
Interest rates set to rise far sooner than expected
The Lehman and Y2K Indicators all lined up exactly as they were at those highs
IPO issuance at the highest level since Y2K

Mass complacency and debt accumulation the likes of which the world has never seen before, all highly incentivized by five years of 0% interest rates

And let's not forget Ebola, Ukraine, Gaza and about a dozen other escalating conflicts going on right now none of which is "priced in"

"What, Me Worry?"