Thursday, September 4, 2014

Death is Certain. Life is Not.


I never worry about dying. I didn't exist before, and I won't exist after. 
Kind of like this pseudo-economy.
Speaking of fatalistic mentality, the close-up Elliot Waves are getting interesting again. Daneric has a count that he has actually stuck with for months now. As opposed to EWI who change theirs about twice a week...

A Mere 90% Collapse over Two Years Time
Both Daneric's count which is days if not hours from completing and the EWI count which always seems to have just completed right before it starts again, assume that this is all just a retracement "b" wave. B waves are "phony" waves which indicate false optimism amidst deteriorating economic fundamentals. Sounds very familiar. The "Bush" rally was also a "b" wave, which ended in collapse. This current "b" wave is one trend degree higher. EWI predicts a 90% crash over about two years time. 

Daneric's Big Picture Count:


And his close-up...


Many borrowers are already insolvent and borrowing to pay interest
Not to be outdone, by the pros, this is my wave count. I have coined a new term called the "ESDW" aka. Elliot Straight Down Wave. It's the wave that occurs when compulsive gamblers realize that they are massively overleveraged and about to get wiped out again. My count always assumes that collapse will occur "right now", because I don't pretend to know what event, catalyst or moment will kick-off the "Minsky Moment". I don't know what the fuck Putin or ISIS or Ebola are going to do next. The most likely scenario is a lot of shit will break all at the same time. No one knows. What we do know is that many borrowers are already deeply insolvent and borrowing to pay interest, so we need not assume that there will be ready buyers at lower levels for those insolvent assets when liquidity dries up.

As I've said before, I only trust the three wave a-b-c pattern, it's usually highly reliable:


"But Elliot Wave is financial astrology"
Clearly this all has to be taken with a grain of salt. However, "fundamental analysts" are essentially guessing what economic and company-specific fundamentals will look like a year from now. Market technicians are driving forward by looking in the rear view mirror. And meanwhile most people are taking advice from the same unqualified investment "gurus" who lost their money in 2008 under the fatal assumption that "buy and hold" is the only option.

ZH (Sept. 3rd, 2014): 
"The Billionaires Are All Quietly Preparing For The Plunge"



This has all been the largest head fake in human history. That said, the only people who got faked are people who can be conned by the same psychopaths multiple times in a row, compulsive gamblers who can't help themselves, and a general population that believes that more debt is the solution to a debt crisis. 

INVEST AT YOUR OWN RISK