Thursday, January 1, 2015

Big Fucking Kaboom

You know, the one they assume can't happen because the Dow is at an all time high

The Telegraph: Jan. 1, 2015
"2015: The Year of Dollar Danger"
"Tightening by the US Federal Reserve will have turbo-charged effects on a global financial system addicted to zero rates and dollar liquidity."

"the BRICS and mini-BRICS...must do penance for $5.7 trillion in dollar debt"

"the Fed is on the [tightening] warpath, digesting figures showing US capacity use soaring to 80.1pc, and growth running at an 11-year high of 5pc in the third quarter."

"The Fed pivot comes as China’s Xi Jinping is trying to deflate his own country’s $25 trillion credit boom, early in his 10-year term and before it is too late. He does not need or want uber-growth."

Dollar Danger Visualized (U.S. Dollar Index Inverted) 


As we learned the hard way in 1997 - a la Japan - when a major carry currency strengthens, the rest of the world implodes...

Euro:


Commodities versus stocks:


Junk bonds versus stocks:


Canadian stocks third lower high:


NYSE One Month Breadth:


NYSE New Highs


Emerging Markets and oil



NYSE Margin: Leveraged to an historic maximum
Data from: NYSE


Eastern Europe


Russian Stocks: I call this "pre-gaming"



Japanese Yen/dollar (inverted):


Treasury Yields versus U.S. stocks:


Treasury Bonds (Prices): I expect this trend to continue i.e. my bet against Prechter & Co...


Airlines: Up 60% in 8 weeks. 
I don't expect this trend to continue i.e. my bet against the Idiocracy & Co...


Global Macro:
Copper, Oil, Canadian dollar, Russian stocks, gold:



France CAC: third lower high, this cycle


Aussie All Ordinaries: third lower high



Rest of World versus U.S.:


Rest of world as ratio of U.S.:



Weak of Mind