HALO Crash Two Years in the Making
Half of all NYSE Stocks already in a bear market (and half of all Nasdaq stocks)
NYSE % of Stocks Above 200 Day Moving Average:
Back in 2007, the average stock peaked relatively concurrent with the market. Thereafter, the late cycle stocks continued to plow ahead on their own for a year later until Lehman. Which gave Wall Street time to hedge portfolio risk. However, in this cycle, the average stock peaked two years ago, well before the market. Central Planning for Billionaires, combined with HFT, has obscured the fact that the latest cycle stocks are now carrying the market and peaking concurrently. Only by looking at these late cycle "Lehman indicators" which always peak last, can we see where we are in the business cycle - that is, in addition of course to observing the rest of the world falling apart, credit spreads at one year wides, treasury yields down at Lehman lows, and so forth...
All major sectors have peaked except real estate (REITS) which made a new high today.
It's Walmart's World, We Just Live In It
Walmart also hit a new all time high today, which is not surprising given that it is the quintessential recession stock:
The (other) Lehman Indicators...
Johnson & Johnson peaked in early December
As we see below it was very "timely" in 2008
Consumer non-cyclical "recession stocks"
Peaked with the Dow in late December
Utilities
Also peaked in late December with the Dow
Also peaked in late December with the Dow
Norfolk Southern Railways
Peaked late November. Very timely in '08
Ameritrade
A very good Lehman indicator: Peaked early December
Oil Services
Called the turn in '08. And we know what's happening now...
Commodities: I think we all see where I'm going with this...
Airlines: lingering near recent highs, but notably still below their Y2K high
Up 750% since 2009. Yes, you read that right.
Priceline
Top performing S&P stock up 2,000% since 2009
Peaked in March of last year
One sector to go: Commercial Real Estate:
One of these is not like the other
NYSE stocks making new 52 week highs: Peaked two years ago way ahead of the market
50 day moving average
"We're investing your money in imagined realities now"
Wall Street maxed out its hedges in 2007 right because that's when New Highs Peaked with the market. This time, they're chasing imagined realities...
Skynet is working sudden death overtime
