Tuesday, January 6, 2015

This Is Not A Fucking Mystery Novel

Emerging Markets which have feasted on dollar debt to the tune of $5.7 trillion (175% of GDP), are also the marginal consumer of oil.
Now the dollar is rising, so debt service costs are rising, hence oil demand is falling.



Bloomberg Dec. 12th, 2014
World Oil Demand Outlook Cut Again
"Any hope that global demand would provide a floor for oil’s freefall was dashed as the leading energy forecaster cut its [demand] outlook for the fourth time in five months and crude extended its tumble."

“These low prices aren’t spurring an uptick in demand. Economies aren’t as energy intensive as they once were so the relationship isn’t that strong anymore.”

Oil is not leading Emerging Markets, Emerging Market economies are leading oil.
Oil and Emerging Market Stocks
Even a blind man can see how this is going to turn out:


This is going to get fucking ugly sooner rather than later.