U.S. Recession

Treasury Bonds have been screaming recession for months. Now sector by sector, stocks are indicating recession as well.

The recent Dow high was December 29th. Back in 2007, stocks peaked six weeks before the recession officially started. Some sectors peaked before the recession started, some peaked after. Many of the sectors that peaked AFTER the recession had begun last time, have already peaked months ago.
Energy exploration is the new subprime, which just crashed taking heavy construction, industrial machinery, basic materials and energy with it.

Casinos down. Booze and Cigarettes now leading.
Brewers are the only sector that peaked AFTER Lehman in 2008, because everyone wanted to get shit faced, one last time. I think we all see where I'm already going with this...

Keep this recession chart in mind for the following sector-by-sector analysis as to what happened before and after the beginning of the last recession:

Recession Start: December 2007

Recession End: June 2009

Personal hygiene products are extremely non-cyclical

As we see they peaked concurrent with the recession last time (and then rallied prior to Lehman):

Basic Materials peaked 7 months AFTER the recession started last cycle

The recent peak was in September:

Commercial Vehicles

Peaked 6 months AFTER the start of recession last cycle

This cycle they peaked in June

Consumer electronics 

Peaked concurrent with the Dow i.e. ~6 weeks prior to recession

This cycle, peaked in July

Casinos peaked with the market

Not this time...

Heavy Construction

Peaked 6 months into recession last time

This time peaked last March

Industrial Machinery

Peaked 6 months after recession last cycle

Peaked this past July

Energy

Peaked 6 months into recession

This time peaked in July

Retail Sales

Composite PMI:

Now we know what this was all about:

The Bush pseudo-recovery was based upon housing construction. The Obama pseudo-recovery was based upon energy exploration. The new subprime just crashed.