Monday, March 9, 2015

Breaking Bad: Revisiting The Lehman Indicators

Central Banks have totally fucked up the business cycle, so we now have to look to the "Lehman Indicators" to see where we are in the cycle. Lest we're tempted to buy GoPro shares in the middle of a recession. These are the stocks that peaked late(st) last time:
Beer stocks are the ultimate "late stage" indicator, since they actually peaked AFTER the collapse. Now they are currently at the bottom of a bearish rising wedge:



Both Ameritrade and Schwab peaked late in '08. Here is Schwab again clinging to its latest highs:


Johnson & Johnson 
Peaked this past December


Walmart peaked in early January:


Oil Services


Norfolk Southern Railways:
Peaked in December


Utilities


Exxon: